Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-22

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-12) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-12 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-12. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-12. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-12. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-12. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-12)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-12) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Afghanistan 61 (35 – 86) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 32 (7.4 – Inf)
Algeria 113 (84 – 147) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 22 (8.4 – Inf)
Argentina 119 (82 – 148) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 33 (9.7 – Inf)
Armenia 51 (28 – 68) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 27 (7 – Inf)
Australia 41 (16 – 61) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.2) -23 (12 – Inf)
Austria 84 (53 – 110) Decreasing 0.6 (0.4 – 0.8) -7.4 (Inf – Inf)
Azerbaijan 40 (19 – 58) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1.1) -17 (17 – Inf)
Bahrain 55 (29 – 80) Decreasing 0.6 (0.4 – 0.9) -6.5 (Inf – Inf)
Bangladesh 347 (291 – 397) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.7) 8.5 (6.1 – 14)
Belarus 494 (431 – 560) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 20 (12 – 68)
Belgium 1289 (1176 – 1379) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -340 (53 – Inf)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 82 (57 – 111) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.8) 9.3 (4.9 – 75)
Brazil 2480 (2343 – 2630) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (12 – 25)
Cameroon 98 (23 – 160) Increasing 2.3 (1 – 3.4) 4 (2.3 – 19)
Canada 1681 (1562 – 1798) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 23 (16 – 42)
Chile 438 (373 – 495) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 43 (17 – Inf)
China 60 (33 – 85) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1.1) -16 (24 – Inf)
Colombia 181 (146 – 219) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 23 (9.7 – Inf)
Cote dIvoire 51 (25 – 72) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) 23 (5.9 – Inf)
Croatia 33 (10 – 50) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.4 – 1.1) -9.4 (26 – Inf)
Cuba 57 (34 – 78) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 63 (8.4 – Inf)
Czechia 123 (88 – 154) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 210 (13 – Inf)
Denmark 163 (127 – 201) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -73 (24 – Inf)
Djibouti 99 (71 – 128) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.8) 7.8 (4.7 – 26)
Dominican Republic 287 (234 – 333) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 18 (9.7 – 97)
Ecuador 474 (412 – 538) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 21 (7.5 – Inf)
Egypt 167 (127 – 203) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 33 (11 – Inf)
Estonia 36 (14 – 58) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) 44 (5.6 – Inf)
Finland 130 (93 – 164) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 31 (9.6 – Inf)
France 1601 (1484 – 1711) Decreasing 0.6 (0.6 – 0.7) -8.4 (Inf – Inf)
Germany 2460 (2293 – 2601) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -47 (Inf – Inf)
Ghana 96 (65 – 125) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.8) 10 (5.2 – 130)
Greece 14 (2 – 26) Decreasing 0.6 (0.2 – 0.9) -4.3 (Inf – Inf)
Guinea 49 (27 – 70) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) 20 (5.9 – Inf)
Hungary 89 (59 – 113) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 53 (9.7 – Inf)
Iceland 18 (1 – 32) Unsure 1.1 (0.3 – 1.8) -76 (3.5 – Inf)
India 1293 (1184 – 1390) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 23 (16 – 48)
Indonesia 317 (264 – 366) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -290 (26 – Inf)
Iran 1398 (1285 – 1505) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -33 (Inf – Inf)
Iraq 36 (17 – 54) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.5) 50 (6.1 – Inf)
Ireland 605 (526 – 676) Decreasing 0.8 (0.8 – 0.9) -17 (Inf – Inf)
Israel 242 (193 – 281) Decreasing 0.7 (0.6 – 0.8) -11 (Inf – Inf)
Italy 3136 (2986 – 3323) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -37 (Inf – Inf)
Japan 493 (423 – 557) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -23 (Inf – Inf)
Kazakhstan 122 (90 – 154) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 29 (9.5 – Inf)
Kosovo 37 (20 – 55) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.5) 130 (7.2 – Inf)
Kuwait 121 (87 – 153) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 18 (7.6 – Inf)
Kyrgyzstan 30 (10 – 46) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.6) 1000 (6.1 – Inf)
Latvia 22 (4 – 35) Unsure 1.4 (0.6 – 2.2) 14 (3.3 – Inf)
Lebanon 13 (0 – 28) Unsure 1.1 (0.2 – 2) -4.1 (2 – Inf)
Lithuania 57 (31 – 83) Increasing 1.5 (1 – 2) 8 (4 – Inf)
Luxembourg 46 (14 – 72) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) 37 (5.7 – Inf)
Malaysia 71 (42 – 101) Decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 0.9) -7.8 (Inf – Inf)
Mexico 609 (542 – 691) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 15 (10 – 29)
Moldova 102 (71 – 133) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -30 (24 – Inf)
Morocco 194 (149 – 228) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 13 (7.4 – 50)
Netherlands 1045 (943 – 1137) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -160 (52 – Inf)
New Zealand 14 (0 – 27) Unsure 1.1 (0.1 – 2) -5.2 (2.2 – Inf)
Niger 20 (3 – 34) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.4 – 1.3) -8.6 (11 – Inf)
Nigeria 59 (35 – 83) Increasing 1.6 (1.1 – 2) 6.5 (3.6 – 32)
North Macedonia 51 (25 – 76) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -150 (9.1 – Inf)
Norway 92 (59 – 120) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) 110 (11 – Inf)
Oman 122 (90 – 151) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 19 (7.8 – Inf)
Pakistan 547 (471 – 608) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (8.6 – 21)
Palestine 13 (0 – 25) Unsure 1.5 (0.5 – 2.5) 5.9 (2 – Inf)
Panama 170 (129 – 206) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 190 (16 – Inf)
Peru 966 (877 – 1051) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -260 (30 – Inf)
Philippines 200 (163 – 244) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -30 (54 – Inf)
Poland 412 (354 – 468) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 28 (14 – Inf)
Portugal 541 (472 – 605) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -43 (72 – Inf)
Puerto Rico 60 (34 – 85) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.5) 43 (7.6 – Inf)
Qatar 466 (402 – 529) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 9.7 (7.1 – 16)
Romania 324 (267 – 370) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -87 (35 – Inf)
Russia 4699 (4484 – 4896) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.5) 9.8 (8.6 – 11)
Saudi Arabia 989 (891 – 1083) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.7) 8.2 (6.7 – 11)
Serbia 338 (280 – 387) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 460 (22 – Inf)
Singapore 698 (630 – 777) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.7) 7.5 (6 – 10)
Slovakia 66 (36 – 93) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 8.9 (4.4 – Inf)
Somalia 37 (19 – 54) Increasing 1.8 (1.1 – 2.4) 5.4 (2.9 – 39)
South Africa 167 (131 – 207) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 13 (7.2 – 56)
South Korea 19 (3 – 33) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.3 – 1.2) -9.2 (9.6 – Inf)
Spain 4396 (4186 – 4581) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) 120 (46 – Inf)
Sweden 562 (496 – 635) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 36 (16 – Inf)
Switzerland 297 (245 – 342) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -15 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand 28 (11 – 44) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.2) -27 (8.7 – Inf)
Tunisia 28 (4 – 46) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.6) 53 (4.7 – Inf)
Turkey 4237 (4028 – 4420) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) -100 (590 – Inf)
Ukraine 396 (339 – 454) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 41 (15 – Inf)
United Arab Emirates 385 (331 – 444) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -480 (29 – Inf)
United Kingdom 5345 (5126 – 5579) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) -160 (110 – Inf)
United States of America 29281 (28709 – 29760) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1) 240 (94 – Inf)
Uruguay 19 (2 – 32) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 2.1) 15 (3.3 – Inf)
Uzbekistan 71 (43 – 94) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -12 (720 – Inf)